On Throwing Crap Against the Wall

So another one of Time’s most overrated blogs of 2009 is Jim Cramer’s blog.

Wall Street’s loudest and most obnoxious cheerleader during the boom is now left holding tattered pom-poms while his stock picks tank all around him.

Indeed — I’ll use this to make another point, which is that even during the boom, you would have been better off betting against Cramer. That is, when analyzed, Jim Cramer is “right about 46% of the time with his stock market predictions, a little below average.” That said, I don’t think it’s fair to pin all the blame on Cramer. If you had to go on record picking stocks everyday, I doubt you’d do much better, but it does illustrate the point that generally speaking, there’s just no way to consistently predict the particularities of the stock market. If the market is in a period of sustained growth, on average, you’re going to do well. If the market is in a period of sustained decline, on average, you’re going to do poorly, no matter how much sagacious insight you might possess.

It’s kind of obvious, but it’s not really something people like to hear.

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2 Responses to “On Throwing Crap Against the Wall”

  1. bri Says:

    Compound your point by the fact that Cramer morphed into all form and little substance. He should be medicated.

  2. mike Says:

    He actually became self defeating. When Cramer made a pick, professionals would often wait just a few minutes and then dump the stock after it crested due to day-trader/casual types picking it up on etrade. They would net a small profit, but ultimately, it would damage the stock.


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