Toight

Just wanted to make a quick point about polls “tightening.” For the first part, I’ll just quote Ben Pershing from the Washington Post:

The RCP stat may seem to show the race tightening, but it probably isn’t; measuring last week’s number next to today’s is an apples-to-oranges comparison. The average last week included some surveys (like the NYT, WashPost and LAT polls) showing Obama with leads of 9 or more points. Because RCP uses a rolling average, those polls have now dropped out, and as of now the average only includes the major tracking polls, which show a closer race. But Obama’s lead has actually grown in those tracking polls from where they were last week.

The second point is that we should expect to see the race “tighten.” For example, Gallup’s daily tracking poll has Obama at 52-41%. If you add that up, you’ll note it only comes to 93%, which means that 7% of those surveyed are undecided. As we draw closer to the actual election, these undecideds are going to break one way or the other, and as such, it’s quite reasonable to expect that not all of these voters swing to Obama, or even that they are split evenly. Accordingly, the race will “tighten.” Another reason the race will “tighten” is the fact that it’s a tight race is better for ratings. This is not to be underestimated.

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